Champions League Odds, Picks, Predictions, Best Bets: Manchester City vs. Real Madrid Betting Preview (April 26) – The Action Network

Odds of Man City vs. Real Madrid

Man City Odds	-200
Real Madrid Odds	+525
Draw	+333
above/below	2.5 (-155 / +110)
Day | Time	Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET
How to watch	CBS | Paramount+ | fuboTV
Opportunities updated via BetMGM† To stay informed football opportunities here†

Zero.

That’s how many Champions League crowns Manchester City has won in its storied history, leaving an empty, spotlighted space in the club’s decorated trophy cabinet.

Well, manager Pep Guardiola and the Premier League giants have their best chance yet to fill that void as they kick off their UCL semi-final round clash with Spain’s Real Madrid in Tuesday’s opening game at the Etihad Stadium.

Oddsmakers at BetMGM have installed Man City as the co-favorite to win the title this season, sharing frontrunners with fellow EPL juggernaut Liverpool. Both are listed at +125 odds, followed by Real Madrid and La Liga longshot Villarreal at +1800 odds.

The Cityzens struggled in their quarter-finals with Atlético Madrid, the third La Liga power to reach the last eight of the competition. Kevin De Bruyne scored the only goal of the two-legged set in City’s opening 1-0 win, before the two battled it out in the Spanish capital to a spirited, spirited draw for the reverse game.

On the other hand, Real Madrid advanced by dethroning reigning UCL champions Chelsea via a 5-4 aggregate score. Karim Benzema continued to do Karim Benzema stuff for Los Blancos, scoring a hat-trick in a 3-1 win over Stamford Bridge in the first leg before noting the winner in extra time during the rematch at the Santiago Bernabéu stadium.

So let’s see where we can find the most bet value in this intriguing match.

Can Man City finally capture UCL glory?

The biggest news coming in this match is that Rüben Dias is back in the starting lineup of Man City. The Portuguese international, arguably the best centre-back in the world, took a 3-0 home win against Brighton & Hove Albion at the start of the second half in Wednesday’s 3-0 home win.

Coincidence or not, the Cityzens scored three goals – thanks to Riyad Mahrez, Phil Foden and Bernardo Silva – in the last 45 minutes to secure the win and three points. Dias went the full 90 minutes into a 5-1 defeat to Watford last Saturday, with City winning the battle for the expected goals by a margin of 3.0-0.5.

The win allowed the club to maintain its one-point lead over Liverpool, who scratched and clawed their way to a 2-0 win against Everton in the Premier League title race last Sunday.

Despite being big favorites, the Cityzens have some major issues when it comes to player health at the back. Kyle Walker has not played since he was beaten in the playback against Atletico Madrid and John Stones has suffered hamstring problems, leaving both standout defenders into question.

Add to that the fact that João Cancelo, right-back, has been suspended for card accumulation and you have some important questions about the back four in defence. And all this despite the return of Dias and the fact that City have not conceded a single goal in four previous matches in the knockout stage.

Real Madrid hope to run through Benzema

It may sound like a cliché, but when it comes to global football, this really is Benzema’s world and we are all lucky enough to live in it.

The Real Madrid and France international’s talisman has redefined the term ‘red hot’ on the pitch, scoring a whopping 39 goals in 39 games across all competitions. He single-handedly scored almost every goal against Chelsea, including some ridiculously shrewd finishes in the first meeting at Stamford Bridge.

Benzema’s dagger in extra time in the reverse match was just the icing on the cake and secured his side a spot in the semi-finals.

But with all the talk of Benzema and Brazilian prodigy Vinícius Júnior, you can’t help but mention veteran playmaker Luka Modrić. Trailing 3-0 in the second half of the reverse game with Chelsea, Modrić dropped an absolute dime on Viní Jr’s foot, who ripped it past goalkeeper Édouard Mendy to get Los Blancos on the board and force extra time .

Manager Carlo Ancelotti has a few, albeit very minor, concerns about Casemiro and defender David Alaba facing some minor knocks but I expect both will be in Madrid’s traditional 4-3-3 formation when the teams enter the Etihad field.

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Man City vs. Real Madrid Stat Comparisons

*Information via fbref.com

PLAYER STATES	MAN CITY	REAL MADRID
Most Goals (all compositions)	De Bruyne/Sterling (14)	Benzema (39)
Top assists	Jesus (12)	Vinicius Junior (18)
LEAGUE STATS	MAN CITY	REAL MADRID
xG	74.7	63.8
xGA	23.0	37.7
xGDiff	+51.7	+26.1
xGDiff/90 minutes	+1.57	+0.79

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Betting Analysis and Choices

Look, there’s a reason Manchester City are parked with a -200 chance or longer on the three-way moneyline. Guardiola has the best team in the world and is the deserved favorite to finally take home the trophy.

And maybe the Cityzens will do just that. All it takes is for Benzema to get a sniff at the goal to get Los Blancos on the board away from home. He is the most in shape striker in the world, in the worst case scenario he is doubled and clears opportunities for Vinicius Junior, Federico Valverde, etc. to find the back of the net.

That said, I support this game by scoring 2.75 goals with a fair chance of -115 through DraftKings on the Asian Totals as my top pick. I recommend shopping around for the best price if you’re following this game, but I see the number somewhere between -110 and -120 countries before kick-off.

I’m also doing a parlay throw, using both semi-final matches in the bet. I pair the Manchester City/Real Madrid with 2.75 goals in total and Villarreal get +2 goals through the alternative spread fighting Liverpool against +196 chances at DraftKings.

I really like both bets, including the second half of the game. The Yellow Submarine, which has been questioned (by all but Action Network colleague Anthony Dabbundo) throughout the knockout portion of the campaign, could cause a lot of trouble for the Reds with his playstyle.

We saw Everton frustrate Liverpool for 60 minutes of Sunday’s game at Anfield. And it goes without saying that this Villarreal side is better managed and more skilled than Frank Lampard’s hapless Merseyside outfit.

choices† Total more than 2.75 goals (-115)

Parlay — Manchester City/Real Madrid (over 2.75 goals total) & Villarreal +2 vs. Liverpool (+196)

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